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3 February 2021

Global economic news for Jan 25-31, 2021. Sberbank CMR

MARKETS. As of Friday, the price of Urals crude stood at USD55.5/bbl, the ruble exchange rate was RUB76.2 to USD1. The IMF revised its 2021 global economic growth forecast up to 5.5%. IMF: inflation will remain “suppressed” in both mature and developing countries in 2021-22. The S&P100 P/E ratio is now higher than ahead of the dot-com crisis ("because of" Tesla).

COUNTRY NEWS. The US economy growth decelerated in 4Q20 amid weakening consumer demand. Opportunity Insights: direct USD600 stimulus checks significantly increased consumer spending among Americans with incomes under USD46,000. The Fed, as expected, kept its policy unchanged. Economic sentiment in the euro area deteriorated in January (industry excluded). The ECB will invest in a BIS green bond fund, increase the proportion of green bonds in its portfolio, and create a climate change center.

RUSSIA. According to the first estimate by Rosstat, Russia’s statistics agency, the economic decline for the year reached 3.1% y-o-y. The labor market situation worsened in 2020. Real disposable incomes slid by 3.5%.

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