Real-time retail consumption tracker for September 13-19, 2021
Household spending added 16.7% y-o-y on September 13-19, 2021. SberIndex analysts claim that the demand is on the wane amid pensioners and soldiers spending their government stimulus checks. However, given the scale (some 0.4% of the annual GDP), growth rates are expected to be abnormally high for the next two or three weeks.
SberIndex analysts have also maintained their “organic” growth rate estimate, i.e. excluding the one-time surge, at about 12.0-12.2% y-o-y.
Almost the entire slowdown of the past week was attributed to non-food retail (+22.8% y-o-y vs +26.0% y-o-y a week earlier). This is a natural development since this particular segment was the beneficiary of 90% of additional spending in August and September.
SberIndex analysts have revised the plane ticket spending dynamics upwards and are currently seeing this segment grow (+24.8% y-o-y). Their pre-pandemic estimate remains unchanged: a 35.9% decrease y-o-y.
The consumer activity index stays close to 80 points (79.4 points last week).
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