Real-time retail consumption tracker for June 14-20, 2021
The week of June 14-20, 2021, was marked by a further decline in consumer activity. The normalized rise of household expenses dropped to 4.3% compared to 5.0% a week earlier, 2.2 percentage points below the figures for the last week of May. Due to the non-working week, the consumer activity index for Moscow fell to January levels (an average of 50.7 for the last week). SberIndex analysts note that the consumer activity index for Russia remained nonetheless at last week’s levels (64.2 p).
Nominal change (% y-o-y) without adjustments. Consumer spending grew at a rate of +8.5% y-o-y June 14-20, 2021.
Changes compared to weekly volume for Feb 1-Mar 15, 2020. The week of June 14-20, 2021, was characterized by a further decline in consumer activity, with normalized growth of household expenses at 4.3% compared to 5.0%. For the second week in a row, spending patterns have displayed a similarity to pandemic spending: service consumption is decreasing (-4.3% compared to the base period, although the month began with positive figures) and food expenditure is growing (+8.8%).
The non-working week in Moscow significantly impacted the expenses of people living in the region. The consumer activity index for the city dropped to January levels (50.7 on average for the last week). We associate the overall decrease in Russia primarily with changes in the capital.
The consumer activity index for Russia remains at last week’s levels (64.2 p). Growth in Moscow differs from the rest of the country.
SberIndex analysts reiterate that assessments remain highly volatile in connection with the base effect (during the self-isolation regime in April-May 2020 and the end of the regime in June). For a more detailed picture of current changes in demand, SberIndex uses a seasonally adjusted comparison with the fixed period of February and the first half of March 2020 (Feb 1-Mar 15, 2020).
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