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26 January 2021

Real-time retail consumption tracker for January 18-24, 2021

Between January 18 and 24 the dynamics of consumer spending in Russia didn't change, with growth maintained at +0.1% y-o-y.

This figure, the experts say, should be viewed in the context of many new coronavirus cases still registered in the country.

As the health situation improves, the gradual removal of restrictions will increase the consumption of services by default. According to estimates from earlier trackers, the service sector might recover by another 6‒8%, to near the figures spotted in March 2020. This will add about 2 p.p. to household demand. The further fate of the sector will largely depend on the vaccination rate and the development of herd immunity.

As to the dynamics of the key sectors, the big picture barely changed since last week. Retail goods are on the rise (+4.8% y-o-y) while the service sector is on the wane (–18.6% y-o-y).

Interestingly, it’s non-food retail that still sees the number of offline outlets declining (–1.8% since before the pandemic). The service sector, however, sees the metric go up (+4.7%).

Consumer activity generally remains medium. The consumer activity index that SberIndex keeps track of reached 62.1 points during the week in question.

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  • COVID-19
  • Expenses