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27 April 2021

Real-time retail consumption tracker for April 19-25, 2021

Over the next two months it will be exceedingly difficult to interpret the evolution of spending compared to last year’s results (% y-o-y), an integral part of our tracker, due to the extreme impact of the base effect. Stringent restrictions were put in place in April and May 2020, as a result of which consumption functioned at the minimum volume required to keep the economy moving. For a clearer representation of current demand evolution, we are temporarily introducing a comparison with the fixed period of February and the first half of March 2020 (Feb 1– Mar 15, 2020).

Nominal change (% y-o-y) without adjustments. Consumer spending surged April 19–25, 2021 by 36.9% y-o-y.

Changes compared to weekly average figures for Feb 2—Mar 15, 2020. Consumer spending for April 19–25, 2021, was 5.1% higher than during the last pre-pandemic weeks. Demand somewhat slowed down compared to the previous week (–0.4 percentage points compared to April 12–18), which appears to be weather-related based on the spending structure.

Spending in the service segment decreased slightly (–2.7% compared to the base period, while it was –1.1% a week earlier) primarily due to a spending drop in the Cafés, Bars, and Restaurants category (–17.5%). The colder weather could have had an impact here.

Excellent growth was noted in the Hotels in Russia segment, with an increase of 25.9% compared to the base period, while the previous week saw an increase of 13.7%. It would appear that Russians are more actively planning holidays in the beginning of May, having received additional days off.

There were no significant changes in the food retail sector (+5.6%). Spending in the Clothing, Footwear, and Accessories segment of the non-food sector fell considerably (+20.2% compared to +30.6% a week earlier). The weather likely also had an effect here.

At 73.5 points, last week’s consumer activity index fell slightly behind the yearly high.

  • Consumers
  • Consumer spending

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