Real-time retail consumption tracker for January 25-31, 2021
The easing of curbs in Moscow, which primarily affected food services, SberIndex analysts say, has not affected consumers yet. Spending in restaurants and bars of Moscow added a paltry 3% w-o-w, and growth started at the end of the week. Throughout Russia, the slowdown averaged 23.0% y-o-y.
Last week, restrictions being lifted across museums, theaters, cinemas and other cultural institutions was especially noticeable. Spending in this segment increased by almost one-quarter over the week. For instance, spending in theaters and cinemas jumped by 24% compared to January 18-24 while in museums and exhibitions the metric added 20%.
In general, from January 25 to 31, SberIndex analysts recorded improvements in the dynamics of consumer spending in Russia, which added 2.8% y-o-y. Thanks to the revival of buyers in the second half of the month, spending also increased by +0.9% y-o-y throughout January. For the first time since the pandemic onset, household spending registered an upward trend for two months in a row.
Higher figures, which is counterintuitive, were focused within the segment of retail goods (+8.1% y-o-y). The service sector stayed close to the “pandemic normal” (–16.0% y-o-y).
Analysts still expect more demand to arise in service-related categories. Coronavirus restrictions are still being eased, which can add some 2 pp to household demand.
The number of active outlets keeps climbing steadily, now being 4.2% above last February.