Real-time retail consumption tracker for September 27 - October 03, 2021

Household spending reached RUB 4,507.3 bn in September 2021, a 15.4% increase y-o-y. The growth rate remained close to what was seen in August (+15.5%, according to Rosstat). However, SberIndex analysts say the nominal figures were heavily backed by the higher inflation, with GDP on the wane in real terms for the second month running. In September, it lost 0.4% m-o-m after a 0.2% m-o-m decrease in August and could lose even more in October. SberIndex does not expect any major consumption problems because Russian’s nominal earned income is seeing double-digit growth.

Household spending on goods and services reached RUB 4,507.3 bn in September 2021, or 15.4% up y-o-y.

The growth rate remained close to what was seen in August (+15.5% y-o-y, according to Rosstat), but the nominal figures were heavily backed by the higher inflation.

According to Rosstat’s September data that SberIndex analyzed, the figures suggest a further slowdown in economic activity in September. According to early estimates by the Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank, GDP lost 0.4% m-o-m in real terms [i].

After analyzing SberIndex indicators, Sberbank CMR’s short-term forecasting model estimated 3Q21 GDP growth at 5.1% y-o-y (down from 5.3% y-o-y).

This might be a sign that the Russian economy is generally following a global trend and is tending to cool down in recent months. Large-scale government payments to the population have largely balanced the negative trends in the last two months, but the slowdown may become more articulated in October.

At the same time, SberIndex is not expecting major consumption issues, as Russia’s nominal earned income is seeing double-digit growth. Gross payrolls reached RUB 2.37 tn in August (+15.8% y-o-y).

Non-food retail, which accounted for the bulk of the additional spending following government payments in August and September, is fueling demand for the second month in a row. While food retail grew by 12.3% y-o-y in September, non-food retail added 17.8%. Home Appliances and Electronics jumped by 14.7% y-o-y in September; consumers spent 22.7% more y-o-y on clothes and shoes, and 55.9% more on computers and software. Consumers also spent much on building and home improvement goods (+15.3% y-o-y) and furniture (+15.2% y-o-y).

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