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15 June 2021

Real-time retail consumption tracker for June 7-13, 2021

Between June 7 and 13, 2021, consumer activity was moderate, with normalized household spending up 5.0%, or 2.2 points below the highs seen recently. The spending structure shifted toward food items significantly, which during the week in question added 16.3% compared to pre-pandemic. SberIndex analysts claim it has to do with several days off and better weather.

Nominal change (% y-o-y) without adjustments. Consumer spending increased from June 7 to June 13, 2021, at a rate of 10.1% y-o-y, which is only due to the favorable base effect as compared to the beginning of the month.

Changes compared to weekly average figures for Feb 1–Mar 15, 2020. June 7 through June 13, 2021, spending activity was moderate. Normalized household spending added 5.0%, down 2.2 since the recent highs. The spending structure shifted toward food items, which is unusual.

The performance was very strong in the segment of food services, where the increase reached 16.3% of the pre-pandemic figures during the week.

SberIndex analysts believe that consumer behavior was mainly affected by the numerous days off and better weather.

Last week’s figures do not carry any obvious signs that the deteriorating coronavirus situation is affecting spending dynamics.

However, the spending activity index is down to 64.5 points, according to early estimates. This constitutes a decrease since the same stretch in 2020 (67.5 p) and the days off in early May (70.6 p). The metric depends on the variety of spending structure, and the demand was shifted toward food items during the week in question, which is unusual.

SberIndex analysts reiterate the volatility of estimates remains high due to the base effect (the lockdown of April and May 2020 and its relief in June). For a clearer representation of the evolution of current demand, SberIndex suggests that a temporary comparison with the fixed period of February and the first half of March 2020 is introduced (Feb 1 – Mar 15, 2020) taking seasonal adjustments into account.

When publishing the materials, a reference to SberIndex (www.sberindex.ru) is mandatory.

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