Real-time retail consumption tracker for August 02-08, 2021
The annual growth rate of consumer spending jumped to +20.1% y-o-y between August 2–8, 2021. SberIndex analysts note that this spike in spending is related to the RUB 10,000 presidential payments for schoolchildren that began on August 2 and accounted for over half of the total increase.
Additional expenses amounted to RUB 29.4 bn, or approximately 0.6–0.7% of all expected spending by the population in August.
Demand increased across almost the entire spectrum of goods and services, with several non-food retail segments standing out. There was noticeable growth in spending in the following categories: Clothing, Footwear, Accessories (+31% w-o-w) and Department Stores (+15% w-o-w).
A marked increase of the consumer activity index was expected (78.4 p in Russia as a whole, compared to 75.8 p a week earlier).
The current growth rate is obviously unsustainable. The benefits received at the peak of the pandemic in July 2020 were visible in the data for a fortnight. It is reasonable to assume that the effect will last around until the middle of the month this time, too.
According to SberIndex, the nominal growth rate is currently 12.4–12.5% y-o-y.
SberIndex analysts note that consumer activity has generally normalized compared to the 2020 base. The commotion associated with changes in consumption patterns during lockdown has virtually disappeared. SberIndex will therefore be refocusing on performance in relation to last year's levels (% y-o-y), as well as seasonally adjusted monthly data (% m-o-m, SA, real terms).
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