Real-time retail consumption tracker for August 09-15, 2021
The annual consumer spending growth rate remained higher than trend levels between August 9-15, 2021, with an increase of +16.9% y-o-y. SberIndex analysts note that the RUB 10,000 presidential benefits for schoolchildren are still a key factor supporting spending. This resource led to RUB 50.4 bn in additional expenses from August 9 to 15, 2021. Overall, at the end of the fortnight, payouts led to an increase in household spending of almost RUB 80 bn, which is equivalent to 1.8% of expected spending by the population in August. This represents a timely and necessary boost, given the de facto stagnation in demand in June and July.
The slowdown compared to the previous week (+20.1% y-o-y) is based solely on the base effect. Directly observed demand has changed little in recent days.
Non-food retail (+21.0% y-o-y) accounts for the bulk of expenses and is most likely to do with preparations for school. Additional demand remains high in the Clothing, Footwear, Accessories (+22.5% y-o-y) and Stationery (+42.0% y-o-y) categories.
In contrast to last week, the service sector of the economy also received a share of the spending (+20.3% y-o-y). Even the Entertainment category saw spending 5.3% above pre-pandemic levels.
The consumer activity index also remains at high levels (79.0 p across Russia as a whole, compared to 78.4 p a week earlier).
SberIndex analysts note that consumer activity has generally normalized compared to the 2020 base. The commotion associated with changes in consumption patterns during lockdown has virtually disappeared. SberIndex will therefore be refocusing on performance in relation to last year's levels (% y-o-y), as well as seasonally adjusted monthly data (% m-o-m, SA, real terms).
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