Real-time retail consumption tracker for November 23- 29, 2020
According to SberIndex analysts, the dynamics of consumer spending did not show any improvement from November 23 to November 29, losing 11.4% y-o-y after falling by 9.0% y-o-y a week earlier. At the same time, the number of active outlets turned out to be the highest this year (+4.0% versus February) amid corporate attempts to participate in sales.
The decline, which accelerated by 2.4 pp compared to last week, has to do with Black Friday, SberIndex analysts believe. The sales were weak, as was expected, and their contribution to the spending decline amounted to some 2 pp.
Weaker spending is concentrated in the non-food retail sector (–9.0% y-o-y after –4.8% a week before), which is also mainly due to weak Black Friday. Driven by sales, the surge in demand was seen in all traditional categories, but the incremental spending was 40% lower than in 2019.
Compared to a regular Friday in November, buying added 20% this year against 48% a year earlier in the Home Appliances and Electronics category. In the Clothing, Footwear, and Accessories segment it added 18% against 25% in 2019.
In general, according to early estimates, consumer spending lost 9.9% y-o-y in November, which makes it a month with the third biggest decline in 2020, following April (–26.2%) and May (–16.8%).