Real-time retail consumption tracker for July 5-11, 2021
Consumer activity estimates benchmarked against the 2020 base are normalizing, but the dynamics of spending in certain categories remains distorted. For a clearer representation of the evolution of current demand, we suggest that a comparison with the fixed period of February and the first half of March 2020 is introduced (Feb 1 – Mar 15, 2020) taking seasonal adjustments into account.
Nominal change (% y-o-y) without adjustments. Consumer spending increased July 5-11, 2021, at a rate of 8.7% y-o-y. The metric is still being pushed down by the base effect resulting from the lifting of restrictive measures in early July 2020 and people spending their stimulus checks in the same period of time.
Changes compared to weekly average figures for Feb 1–Mar 15, 2020. July 5 through July 11, 2021, consumer activity went up following moderate two-week dynamics. Annualized household spending added 9.3% in nominal terms.
Additional demand is observed across the entire service sector – in retail goods and services.
If the current rates are maintained, the demand will resume growth in July, leaving June a single moment derailing the revival dynamics. This theory needs to be verified, naturally.