Real-time retail consumption tracker for July 19-25, 2021
On July 19-25, 2021, consumer activity somewhat weakened (-1.9 pp w-o-w) while remaining quite high. SberIndex analysts claim the demand for medication increased in July (up 20% y-o-y vs. 11.4% in June) and say that the transition to domestic tourism is stable in Russia.
Nominal change (% y-o-y) without adjustments. Consumer spending increased July 19-25, 2021, at a rate of 12.1% y-o-y.
Changes compared to weekly average figures for Feb 1–Mar 15, 2020. July 19 through July 25, 2021, consumer activity somewhat dropped w-o-w (-1.9 pp) while remaining quite high. Annualized household spending added 7.0% in nominal terms compared to pre-pandemic.
The increase in spending on medicines remains close to 20% y-o-y for the third week in a row. In June it increased by 11.4% y-o-y. Good news is the weekly evolution shows that the demand in this segment is declining, albeit slowly (-0.8 pp last week).
The data still have the features of a vacation season. Assumingly, about one-third of tourists’ pre-pandemic spending outside Russia has steadily turned into domestic spending. Spending on hotels in Russia is up 42.1% since pre-pandemic, while abroad the metric is down 27.0% (both figures are annualized, the actual changes are even more striking). The spending on plane tickets also decreased, being 35% down since pre-pandemic.
SberIndex analysts reiterate the volatility of estimates remains high due to the base effect (the lockdown of April and May 2020 and its relief in June). For a clearer representation of the evolution of current demand, SberIndex suggests that a temporary comparison with the fixed period of February and the first half of March 2020 is introduced (Feb 1 – Mar 15, 2020) taking seasonal adjustments into account.
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